Demographic attribution of household viewing events

ABSTRACT

Tuning data representing a television viewing event associated with a particular household is accessed. Household member data representing information on individual members of the particular household is accessed. Viewing profile data representing information on individual members of other households regarding viewership by the individual members of the other households is accessed. Fractional viewership values for the individual members of the particular household are determined based on the tuning data, the household member data, and the viewing profile data. Household viewership data is determined based on the fractional viewership values.

BACKGROUND

Television advertising relies on program and network viewership data inorder to determine the expected reach of advertising slots. Advertisersare interested in numbers of viewers as well as the demographics ofviewers in order to effectively manage television advertising timing andcontent. Understanding television audience viewing and habits may beuseful in supporting advertising planning, buying, and selling.

SUMMARY

In one aspect, tuning data representing a television viewing eventassociated with a particular household is accessed. Household memberdata representing information on individual members of the particularhousehold is accessed. Viewing profile data representing information onindividual members of other households regarding viewership by theindividual members of the other households is accessed. Fractionalviewership values for the individual members of the particular householdare determined based on the tuning data, the household member data, andthe viewing profile data. Household viewership data is determined basedon the fractional viewership values.

Implementations may include one or more of the following features.Determining the fractional viewership value for each individual membermay include determining a probability for each individual member havingwatched the television viewing event based on the household member dataand the viewing profile data; determining a household adjustment factorrepresenting the probability that at least one member of the householdwatched the television viewing event, based on the probabilities foreach member having watched the television viewing event; adjusting theprobability for each individual member having watched the televisionviewing event based on the household adjustment factor; and determiningthe fractional viewership value for each individual member based on theadjusted probability for that member having watched the televisionviewing event. The viewing profile data may based on survey data.

Determining fractional viewership values for the individual members ofthe particular household may include, for at least one of the individualmembers, determining a particular episode of a television programassociated with the television viewing event; and determining a fractionof members of other households with information matching the individualmember that watch the television program. The household member data maynot include information on at least one missing member of the particularhousehold. A fractional viewership value may be determined for the atleast one missing member based on determining a fraction of identifiedmembers of other households that watch the television program. Themembers may be identified based on the other members in their householdshaving information matching the information of the members of theparticular household other than the at least one missing member.

The household viewership data may be accessed. Other householdviewership data for one or more other television viewing eventsassociated with the particular episode of the television program may beaccessed. The household viewership data and the other householdviewership data may be aggregated to generate episode viewership dataassociated with the particular episode of the television program. Theepisode viewership data associated with the particular episode of thetelevision program may be accessed. Other episode viewership data forone or more other episodes of the television program may be accessed.The episode viewership data and the other episode viewership data may beaggregated to generate program viewership data associated with thetelevision program.

The program viewership data may be accessed, wherein the televisionprogram may be associated with a particular television network. Otherprogram viewership data for one or more other television programs eachassociated with the television network may be accessed. The programviewership data and the other program viewership data may be aggregatedto generate network viewership data associated with the televisionnetwork. The network viewership data may be accessed, wherein thetelevision network may be associated with a particular entity. Othernetwork viewership data for one or more other television network eachassociated with the entity may be accessed. The network viewership dataand the other network viewership data may be aggregated to generateentity viewership data associated with the entity.

The tuning data may include a time, date, and television network for thetelevision viewing event. Determining fractional viewership values forthe individual members of the particular household may include, for atleast one of the individual members, determining a fraction of membersof other households with information matching the individual member thatwatch the television network at the time and date associated with thetelevision viewing event.

The household member data may include, for each of the individualmembers, one or more demographic groups to which that member belongs.Tuning data representing a second television viewing event associatedwith the particular household and a particular episode of a secondtelevision program may be accessed, the second television viewing eventoccurring simultaneously with the television viewing event. Secondprogram viewership data may be accessed representing information onindividual members of other households regarding viewership of thesecond television program by the individual members of the otherhouseholds. Determining fractional viewership values for the individualmembers of the particular household may be further based on the secondprogram viewership data.

Implementations of any of the described techniques may include a methodor process, an apparatus, a device, a machine, a system, or instructionsstored on a computer-readable storage device. The details of particularimplementations are set forth in the accompanying drawings anddescription below. Other features will be apparent from the followingdescription, including the drawings, and the claims.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 illustrates a system in which television viewership informationmay be collected and processed to determine audience measurement data.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example of a system in which collected data can beused to generate viewership data through demographic attribution.

FIG. 3 is a flow chart illustrating an example of a process forgenerating viewership data and using that data to generate viewershipreports.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process fordetermining event viewership data for a particular television viewingevent.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process forgenerating fractional viewership values for individual household membersfor a particular television viewing event.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram applying a demographic attribution model toexamples of collected data.

FIG. 7 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process foraggregating viewership data.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process for assigningfractional viewership values for simultaneous television viewing eventsin a household.

FIG. 9 is a flow chart illustrating an example process for assigningfractional viewership values in households when not all individualdemographics are known.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

In general, a system for measuring audience demographics may haveinformation indicating that a television viewing event occurred at ahousehold and may have the demographics for the members of thathousehold, but there may not be any direct indication of which membersof the household participated in the viewing event. By using the knowndemographics of other individuals viewing the same program, a fractionalvalue (for example, between 0 and 1) can be assigned to, for example,each household member representing a probability for that householdmember having watched the program. These fractional viewership valuescan be aggregated for one or more of the demographic groups in order togenerate demographic viewership data for the episode, program, ornetwork.

By allowing for the demographic attribution of fractional viewershipvalues, a large quantity of tuning data from set top boxes can be usedto measure viewership demographics even in the absence of direct data asto which household members are associated with each tuning event.

FIG. 1 illustrates a system in which television tuning data anddemographics information may be collected and processed to determinetelevision viewership data. The system includes a number of households,such as household 100, that include one or more set-top boxes 112 forviewing television programs. The set top boxes 112 record data fortuning events, which may represent a particular television network orprogram being watched at a particular time. The set top boxes 112 mayreport these tuning events to a set top box usage collection server 114,which may store tuning data 116 representing these tuning events in adatabase or other storage 120. In addition to tuning events, the tuningdata 116 may include data to identify the household 100 and set top box112, stream control data, data representing content recorded by the settop box 112, programs ordered on the set top box 112, and data aboutwhen the set top box 112 was on or off. Other data about the status ofthe set top box 112 and user interaction with the set top box 112 mayalso be recorded and included in tuning data 116.

The households 100 include one or more members 102 that use the set-topboxes to watch television. These members 102 may be associated withdemographics, such as age and gender, and these demographics may becollected and stored in storage 120 or another storage as householdmember data. In the example shown, the household 100 includes fourmembers 102: an 18-year-old male, a 24-year-old female, a 35-year-oldfemale, and a 46-year-old male. Their specific age and gender may bestored may be in household data 120, or the members may instead beassociated with demographic groups. For example, each member 102 may beassociated with an age group (for example: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54,55-64, or 65+), rather than specific age. Other demographics may becollected, such as occupation, income, or ethnicity.

The demographic information for the household members 102 may becollected in a number of ways. For example, the household 100 may berecruited to be part of a television viewing panel that is used todetermine television viewership data. Once the household is recruited,the demographic information may be collected as part of a registrationprocess.

In another example, the household may be a part of, or recruited into,an Internet usage panel that is used to determine Internet usage.Demographic information of the household members 102 may be collectedwhen the household 100 is registered to be part of the Internet usagepanel. As part of the Internet usage panel, the household may have apanel application 106 installed on one or more client systems 104 in thehousehold. The panel application 106 may collect internet usage data tosend to an internet usage collection server 108. In someimplementations, the internet usage data could be used to inferinformation about household member 102, such as by comparing internetcontent accessed by each member 102 with demographic or otherinformation about users accessing the same content. Other methods may beused to capture or confirm information about members 102 of thehousehold 100, such as survey data or data captured from other householdbehaviors, or data provided by third party services that attempt todetermine demographic data of household members.

In addition to household member data 110 and tuning data 116, viewingprofile data 118 may be stored in storage 120 or otherwise available.The viewing profile data 118 includes information that describes whatthe demographic viewing audience history is for certain TV programs. Forexample, the viewing profile data 118 may indicate what percentage ofthe people that are within a particular demographic group viewed acertain program (e.g., 6% of all males between the ages of 18 and 24watched the show X). The viewing profile data 118 may represent areasonable approximation of viewership for different demographic groups,and may include a sample of households with varying demographicinformation. In some implementations, the viewing profile data 118 maybe television survey data acquired by a third party provider or by dataacquisition systems other than those included in the system shown inFIG. 1.

When reporting tuning events, the set top boxes 112 may not be able todirectly report the particular household member or members 102associated with each tuning event. For example, in some implementations,the tuning data 116 may include episode viewership for the household100, but may not include a breakdown of the viewership of individualmembers of the household 102. As described further below, the householdmember data 110, tuning data 116, and viewing profile data 118 may beused to determine, for a given program, values for members 102 of thehousehold 100 that represent the probability that the correspondingmember 102 watched the program. These values can be aggregated forvarious demographic groups in order to generate demographic viewershipdata for the episode, program, or network.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example of a system 200 in which collected datacan be used to generate viewership data through demographic attribution.The system 200 includes a reporting server 202. The reporting server 202may be implemented using, for example, a general-purpose computercapable of responding to and executing instructions in a defined manner,a personal computer, a special-purpose computer, a workstation, aserver, or a mobile device. The reporting server 202 may receiveinstructions from, for example, a software application, a program, apiece of code, a device, a computer, a computer system, or a combinationthereof, which independently or collectively direct operations. Theinstructions may be embodied permanently or temporarily in any type ofmachine, component, equipment, or other physical storage medium that iscapable of being used by the reporting server 202.

The reporting server 202 executes instructions that implement ameasurement data processor 204, a data aggregation processor 206, and areport generation module 208. The measurement data processor 204includes a pre-processing module 204 a, an initial measurement module204 b, and a measurement adjustment module 204 c. The measurement dataprocessor 204 and report generation module 208 may implement a process,such as that shown in FIG. 3, to generate viewership data based on thehousehold member data 110, tuning data, 116, and viewing profile data118 and use that data to generate one or more reports 210 that includeinformation regarding episode-level, program-level, network-level, orentity-level viewership.

FIG. 3 is a flow chart illustrating an example of a process 300 forgenerating viewership data and using that data to generate viewershipreports. The following describes the process 300 as being performed bycomponents of the reporting server 202 with respect to data associatedwith the household 100. However, the process 300 may be performed byother systems or system configurations and implemented with respect toother members of the viewing audience.

The pre-processing module 204 a accesses the collected data 120,including household member data 110, tuning data 116, and viewingprofile data 118 (302). The pre-processing module 204 a may perform oneor more pre-processing functions on the household member data 110,tuning data 116, and viewing profile data 118 as appropriate. Forexample, the pre-processing module 204 a may sort the household memberdata 110 into particular demographic categories for demographicattribution. The pre-processing module 204 a may identify the particularprogram associated with a tuning event within the tuning data 116 andmay extract particular demographic data from the viewing profile data118, such as the profile data for the particular program associated withthe tuning event within each of the demographic categories representedby the household members 112.

Once the appropriate data is extracted, the measurement data processor204 applies a demographic attribution model to the data in order todetermine household viewership data for the household 100 (304). Thehousehold viewership data may be in the form of one or more values that,for a given household member, represent the probability that thehousehold member viewed the program episode associated with the tuningevent. For example, a fractional value may be determined for eachhousehold member, or for each of a subset of the household members, andrepresents the probability that the corresponding member viewed theprogram episode associated with the tuning event. These fractionalvalues may be assigned according to processes 400 or 500 describedbelow.

The data aggregation processor 206 aggregates the household viewershipdata from the household 100 with further household viewership dataaccumulated from other households in order to generate various levels ofviewership data (306). For example, the various sets of householdviewership data may be aggregated to determine episode viewership datafor the episode corresponding to the tuning event. The episodeviewership data may itself be broken down into a number of demographicsor other group measurements based on what is relevant to the televisionentity or to advertisers.

The data aggregation processor 206 may further aggregate the episodeviewership data for multiple episodes into program viewership datareflecting the viewership demographics for the program as a whole.Program viewership data may be further aggregated from multiple programsappearing on the same network in order to determine network viewershipdata. If two or more networks are owned by the same entity, the networkviewership data may be further aggregated into entity viewership data.At each level, the data may continue to isolate and report on variousdemographics or may aggregate one or more of the demographic dimensions.

The report generation module 208 generates viewership reports 210 basedon the aggregated viewership data (308). These reports may include dataat any level of aggregation, and may be specified by a user. Reports mayinclude the viewership data of various demographic groups as estimatedthrough the use of demographic attribution. Entities may requestparticular demographic data and data at a particular level ofaggregation.

For example, a program-level report may show that a particular programhas been watched by 12% of males ages 18-24. A network-level report mayshow that 45% of viewers of a particular network are females above age40. An entity-level report may show that 57% of males and 25% of femaleswatched at least one of the entity's sports networks during the timeperiod representing this year's regular baseball season.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process 400 fordetermining event viewership data for a particular television viewingevent. The following describes the process 400 as being performed bycomponents of the measurement data processor 204 with respect to dataassociated with the household 100. However, the process 400 may beperformed by other systems or system configurations and implemented withrespect to other members of the viewing audience.

The pre-processing module 204 a accesses tuning data representing atelevision viewing event associated with a particular household (402).The pre-processing module may extract the tuning event data for thetelevision viewing event from a larger collection of tuning data 116involving multiple tuning events. In some implementations, otherrelevant tuning events may also be extracted (such as simultaneousevents as further described with respect to process 800 describedbelow).

In some implementations, the television viewing event may be associatedwith a particular episode of a television program. In someimplementations, the television viewing event may not be associated witha particular program but may be associated with tuning data 116 such asa date, time, and television network.

The pre-processing module 204 a accesses the household member data 110representing information on individual members of the particularhousehold 100 (404). The pre-processing module 204 a may identifyparticular elements of this data for use in comparison with members ofother households, such as age category, gender, race, and occupation.Information about the household as a whole, such as household size orincome, may also be identified for use. Each household member 110 may beidentified by one or more demographic dimensions relevant to theparticular application of the demographic attribution model.

The pre-processing module 204 a accesses the viewing profile data 118representing information on individual members of other householdsregarding viewership by the individual members of the other households(406). The pre-processing module 204 a may extract the viewing profiledata 118 for demographic groups matching the individual members of thehousehold 100 and demographic groups from households that match thehousehold 100 as a whole. For the example of the household 100 as shownin FIG. 1, the pre-processing module 204 a may extract the viewershipdata for 18-year-old males in households with four people, 24-year-oldfemales in households with four people, 35-year-old females inhouseholds with four people, and 46-year-old males in households withfour people.

The viewing profile data 118 may be for the viewership of televisionviewing events sharing one or more characteristics with the televisionviewing event represented by the tuning data 116. For example, where thetuning data 116 represents a television viewing event represented by aparticular episode of a television program, the viewing profile data 118may be for the viewership of the television program by members in otherhouseholds. If the television viewing event is represented by a date,time, and network, the viewing profile data 118 may be for theviewership of the network at the date and time by members in otherhouseholds.

The initial measurement module 204 b and the measurement adjustmentmodule 204 c determine fractional viewership values for the individualmembers of the particular household based on the household member dataand the viewing profile data (406). The fractional viewership values fora given member of the household represents the probability that memberviewed the particular event. The set of fractional viewership values fora given household may represent household viewership data. Thefractional viewership values may be determined, for example, usingprocess 500.

The measurement data processor 204 determines household viewership databased on the fractional viewership values (410). The householdviewership data associates the fractional viewership values withdemographics of the individual members of the particular household. Forexample, a fractional viewership value may be determined for each memberof the household, and then associated with that member's demographics.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process 500 forgenerating fractional viewership values for individual household membersfor a particular television viewing event. The following describes theprocess 500 as being performed by components of the measurement dataprocessor 204 with respect to data associated with the household 100.However, the process 500 may be performed by other systems or systemconfigurations and implemented with respect to other members of theviewing audience. As described, the process 500 assumes that the tuningdata 116 is associated with a known television program and that theviewer profile data 118 includes viewership of the program, although asimilar process may be performed in situations where data about thetelevision program is not available.

For each individual member 102 of the household 100, the initialmeasurement module 204 b determines a probability for that memberwatching the particular event (502). The probability may, for example,be determined based on the viewing profile data 118 and may representthe fraction of the demographic group matching each member's demographicgroup that has been recorded to watch the program associated with thetelevision viewing event.

More formally, the probability of a member i of household h withdemographic characteristics d_(i) can be written as P(V_(i) ^(s)|d_(i),H) where V_(i) ^(s) denotes that person i views a particular episode s,and H is the number of members in the household h. Then the probabilityfor the member i watching the show s can be computed as:

${P\left( {\left. V_{i}^{s} \middle| d_{i} \right.,H} \right)} = \frac{n_{d_{i},H}}{N_{d_{i},H}}$

Where n_(di,H) is the number of persons with demographic characteristicsd_(i) and household size H within the viewing profile data 118 who arerecorded as watching a particular episode of the program, and N_(di,H)is the total number individuals with demographic characteristics d_(i)and household size H within the profile viewing data 118.

Where B_(h) ^(s) is the occurrence of a television tuning eventrepresenting the episode s within the household h, and D_(h) is thehousehold member data 110 for all members of the household h, thefollowing probabilities are considered to be equivalent:P(V _(i) ^(s) |d _(i) ,H)=P(V _(i) ^(s) ,B _(h) ^(s) |d _(i) ,H)=P(V_(i) ^(s) ,B _(h) ^(s) |D _(h))

That is to say, given household member i's demographics and householdsize, the probability of i watching the episode s is equal to theprobability of i watching the episode s and the episode s beingassociated with a tuning event in the household h. In fact, this shouldgenerally be true, for any time that V_(i) ^(s) is true, B_(h) ^(s)should also be true (that is, any time household member i watched theepisode s, there should be a tuning event in household h for episode s)and so P(V_(i) ^(s))=P(V_(i) ^(s),B_(h) ^(s)) generally. Furthermore, insome implementations, the probability of household member i watching theepisode s and the episode s being associated with a tuning event in thehousehold h given i's demographics and household size is equal to theprobability of household member i watching the episode s and the episodes being associated with a tuning event in the household h given thehousehold member data 110 for the whole household h—that is, it can beassumed that the particular individual demographic data of the othermembers of the household h does not affect the probability that iwatches s.

The measurement adjustment module 204 c determines a householdadjustment factor representing the probability that at least one memberis watching the program (504). This may represent, for example, theprobability that, given the individual household members' probabilitiesof watching the program, at least one household member watches theprogram, assuming independent probabilities for each of the householdmembers.

Formally, the probability of a tuning event occurring in household hwith demographics D_(h) may be calculated according to the equation:

${P\left( B_{h}^{s} \middle| D_{h} \right)} = {1 - {\prod\limits_{i}{\left\lbrack {1 - {P\left( {V_{i}^{s},\left. B_{h}^{s} \middle| D_{h} \right.} \right)}} \right\rbrack\mspace{14mu}{\forall{i \in h}}}}}$

The household adjustment factor may be determined in other ways. Forexample, in some implementations, the household adjustment factor mayrepresent the fraction of households with the same demographiccomposition as the particular household 100 that watch the programaccording to the viewership data 118, as expressed in the followingequation:

${P\left( B_{h}^{s} \middle| D_{h} \right)} = \frac{n_{D_{H}}}{N_{D_{H}}}$

Other household adjustment factors may be used based on other knownmethods for estimating P(B_(h) ^(s)|D_(h)) based on known data.

The measurement adjustment module 204 c adjusts each household member'sprobability by the household adjustment factor (506). In someimplementations, this may involve dividing the member's probability bythe household adjustment factor. If the household adjustment factorrepresents the probability of at least one person in the household 100viewing the program, this adjusted probability represents the Bayesianprobability that the particular household member watched the episodegiven that at least one household member watched. Formally, the equationcan be written as:

$p_{i,D_{h}}^{s} = {{P\left( {\left. V_{i}^{s} \middle| B_{h}^{s} \right.,D_{h}} \right)} = \frac{P\left( {V_{i}^{s},\left. B_{h}^{s} \middle| D_{h} \right.} \right)}{P\left( B_{h}^{s} \middle| D_{h} \right)}}$

In this equation, p^(s) _(i,Dh) is defined as P(V_(i) ^(s)|B_(h)^(s),D_(h)), the probability of a household member i watching aparticular episode of a program given the household member data 110 forthat household h and that a tuning event associated with s is recordedfor the household h.

The adjusted probabilities represent fractional viewership; that is,each individual household member is counted as a fraction of oneaudience member watching the event based on the adjusted probabilitythat the particular individual household member watched.

The measurement data processor 204 determines the fractional viewershipvalues for each household member based on the adjusted probabilities(508). The fractional viewership values may include additionaladjustments or modifications to incorporate other data. For example, thetuning data 116 may indicate that a television viewing event onlyincludes a portion of the duration of an episode. The tuning data 116may also indicate that an episode was recorded for later playback, thatan episode was associated with an alert event set by a household member,that one or more channel-changes occurred during the episode, or someother behavior reported by a set top box that could be used to influencethe fractional viewership value of a household member.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram applying a demographic attribution model 600to examples of collected data. As shown in a tuning events table 602, atelevision viewing event occurred on January 2 associated with the show“DWTS” on the network “ABC.” Another tuning event occurred on January 5associated with the show “SNL” on the network NBC. The table 604 shows asurvey representing the percentage of respondents in each demographicgroup that watch “DWTS,” and the table 606 shows the same survey datafor “SNL.”

In some implementations, the probability for each individual memberwatching can be assigned by the initial measurement module 204 b to beequal to the percentage watching the program within the member'sdemographic group. Using tables 604 and 606 for “DWTS” and “SNL”respectively, and using the table 608 representing the householdmember's demographic data, the initial probabilities may be 4.6% and11.5% for the M18 member, 4.5% and 15.6% for the F24 member, 13.2% and20.1% for the F35 member, and 23.5% and 23.6% for the M46 member.

As shown in the table 608 the household used in this example has fourmembers. Using the equations described above with respect to the process500, for assigned probabilities of p₁ through p₄ for the four householdmembers, this equation may be equal to:adjustment factor=1−(1−p ₁)*(1−p ₂)*(1−p ₃)*(1−p ₄)

For example, the adjustment factor for “DWTS” using the above equationis 39.5%, and the adjustment factor for “SNL” is 54.4%. In someimplementations, adjusting the individual probabilities involve dividingthe probability of each member i by the household adjustment factor, asfollows:p _(i) ′=p _(i)/(adjustment factor)

The adjusted probabilities p_(i)′ for each member i may each be adjustedby other factors. In some implementations, the duration of the tuningevent may be used to modify each event as follows:fractional viewership value=p ₁′*(duration of tuning event)/(duration ofepisode)

The values shown in the table 610 represent the adjusted probabilitiesmodified by the duration of the tuning event (52 out of 120 minutes for“DWTS” and 49 out of 90 minutes for “SNL”). In some implementations,other adjustments may be made to these values.

FIG. 7 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process 700 foraggregating viewership data. The exemplary process 700 is taken as aresponse for an aggregated report (702), but it will be recognized thatthe system 200 may aggregate viewership data under other circumstances,such as automatically at an interval or when the data is needed toperform particular analytic functions.

The data aggregation processor 206 accesses household viewership dataassigned to each tuning event in multiple households (704). This datamay be in the form of fractional viewership values described above withrespect to the processes 400 and 500.

The data aggregation processor 206 aggregates the data for the tuningevents in different households representing the same episode (706). Thisproduces episode viewership data. In some implementations, aggregatingthe viewership data involves summing the fractional viewership data ineach demographic category and dividing by the number of individuals inthat category to arrive at a probability profile for the episode.

In some implementations, an equation for the number of people N_(s) whoviewed the episode s can be calculated as:

$N^{s} = {\sum\limits_{k}{p_{k,D_{h}}^{s}\mspace{14mu}{\forall{k \in {Sample}}}}}$

That is, the sum of the adjusted fractional viewership values over thesample is equal to the estimated number of people from the sample whowatched the episode s. As described above, these fractional viewershipvalues p^(s) _(k,Dh) may include adjustments for the duration of thetuning event relative to the episode duration and other factors.

The data aggregation processor 206 aggregates the episode viewershipdata representing episodes of the same program in order to generateprogram viewership data (708). In some implementations, the desiredstatistic is how many viewers are estimated to have seen at least oneepisode of the program. In this case, the data aggregation processor 206may use the fractional viewership data associated with each episode andindividual in order to produce fractional values representing eachindividual having watched at least one episode of the program. Forexample, the fractional viewership values v₁ to v₄ for a singleindividual over four episodes may be used to produce a programviewership value v_(p) representing the probability that the individualwatched at least one episode of the program:v _(p)=1−(1−v ₁)*(1−v ₂)*(1−v ₃)*(1−v ₄)

In this way, each household member will contribute at most 1 viewer tothe program viewership data.

Formally, for all episodes s of a program s, the probability of eachperson i having viewed at least one episode s is:

$p_{i,D_{h}}^{\overset{.}{s}} = {1 - {\prod\limits_{m}{\left\lbrack {1 - p_{i,D_{h}}^{s_{m}}} \right\rbrack\mspace{14mu}{\forall{s_{m} \in \overset{.}{s}}}}}}$The de-duplicated number of persons who viewed the programs can becalculated by summing up these probabilities. The summation can also beconditioned on a demographic segment.

The data aggregation processor 206 may use similar methods to aggregateprogram viewership data over multiple programs in order to generateproduct network viewership data (710). For example, similar to thecalculation above for program viewership data, for all programs {dotover (s)} on a network {umlaut over (s)}, the probability of each personi having viewed one of the programs is:

$p_{i,D_{h}}^{\overset{¨}{s}} = {1 - {\prod\limits_{n}{\left\lbrack {1 - p_{i,D_{h}}^{{\overset{.}{s}}_{n}}} \right\rbrack\mspace{14mu}{\forall{{\overset{.}{s}}_{n} \in \overset{¨}{s}}}}}}$The de-duplicated number of persons who viewed a program on networks canbe calculated by summing up these probabilities. The summation can alsobe conditioned on a demographic segment.

The data aggregation processor 206 may similarly aggregate networkviewership data over multiple commonly-owned networks in order togenerate entity viewership data (712). For example, for all networks{umlaut over (s)} owned by a common entity e, the probability of eachperson i having viewed one of the networks {umlaut over (s)} is:

$p_{i,D_{h}}^{e} = {1 - {\prod\limits_{n}{\left\lbrack {1 - p_{i,D_{h}}^{{\overset{¨}{s}}_{n}}} \right\rbrack\mspace{14mu}{\forall{{\overset{¨}{s}}_{m} \in e}}}}}$

The de-duplicated number of persons who viewed a network owned by entitye can be calculated by summing up these probabilities. The summation canalso be conditioned on a demographic segment.

In some implementations, each step of the process may use one or more ofthe aggregation techniques described above, or others appropriate toallowing for overlap and other factors relevant to aggregation at thatlevel.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process 800 forassigning fractional viewership values for simultaneous televisionviewing events in a household. Because a household may have more thanone set top box and more than one display device, at times there may bemore than one program episode being viewed at a time by members of ahousehold. In some implementations, the existence of more than oneprogram episode being viewed at the same time in a household may affectthe fractional values determined for members of that household for oneor both of the viewing events.

In some implementations, steps of the process 800 may occur inconjunction with steps of the process 500 as described above. Whereasthe process 500 is described in terms of a single tuning event, theprocess 800 involves identifying two or more tuning events for whichdata associated with each event will impact the fractional valuesdetermined for the other events. The process 800 can supplement process500 when there is more than one tuning event.

The pre-processing module 204 a identifies simultaneous eventsassociated with the same household generated by set top boxes (802). Insome implementations, simultaneous events are those that include atleast some overlap in the times in which the events are shown. In someimplementations, simultaneous events may have to have at least athreshold amount of overlap to be considered simultaneous; that is,nominal overlap between the first and last minutes of events that areprimarily at different times may not be identified as simultaneous.

Although the process 800 is described as dealing with whole simultaneousevents, in situations where only a portion of the events overlap, thesystem may deal with the overlapping portion of each event as one eventand the non-overlapping portion as a different event, and apply theprocess 800 only to the overlapping portion of the two or more events.

The pre-processing module 204 a accesses the tuning data 116, householdmember data 110, and viewing profile data 118 as described above withrespect to each of the two or more simultaneous viewing events (804). Insome implementations, action 804 may be carried out as described abovewith respect to the similar action 502 of the process 500, except thatit is carried out for each of the two or more tuning events identifiedin action 802.

For each member, the measurement adjustment module 204 c reduces eachprobability according to the ratio of the different viewingprobabilities of that member watching each program (808). In someimplementations, it is assumed that each household member watches atmost one of the multiple simultaneous viewing events. In this case, thefractional viewership value for each event may be adjusted in proportionto the relative probability of the user watching the program associatedwith that event rather than a program associated with one of the otherevents. For example, assuming a given member is assigned an initialprobability of p₁ and p₂ for watching programs associated with twosimultaneous events, the equation for the split probability sp₁ may be:sp ₁ =p ₁/(p ₁ +p ₂)*p ₁

Similarly, the equation for the split probability sp₂ may be:sp ₂ =p ₂/(p ₁ +p ₂)*p ₂

The measurement adjustment module 204 c uses these split probabilityvalues sp₁ and sp₂ in place of the initial probability values p₁ and p₂when calculating the adjusted probability for fractional viewership(810). Without loss of generality, similar equations may be used toextend the adjustment to three or more simultaneous events, and theresulting split probability sp_(n) may be used in place of the initialprobability p_(n) for each set top box involved in simultaneous viewingevents. In some implementations, actions 504, 506, and 508 of theprocess 500 may proceed using the split probability values sp for eachhousehold member in calculating the household adjustment factor, theadjusted probabilities, and the fractional viewership values for each ofthe two or more tuning events identified in action 802.

FIG. 9 is a flow chart illustrating an example of a process 900 forassigning fractional viewership values in households when not allindividual demographics are known.

The pre-processing module 204 a identifies one or more missing householdmembers in a house of known size (902). This situation may arise wheresurvey data exists or is incomplete, such as where a household memberhas identified household size in a survey but one or more other membersof the household has not been identified. It may also occur wheremembers of a household are identified individually, but data usagepatterns or other public information also identify the existence ofother household members without disclosing individual information forthe other household members. For example, the pre-processing module 204a may have data on three household members in what it knows to be ahousehold of size four. It therefore identifies one household memberwhose demographics are not known.

The pre-processing module 204 a accesses the tuning data 116, householdmember data 110, and viewing profile data 118 (904).

The pre-processing module 204 a accesses viewing profile data for otherhouseholds whose demographics match the known data of the particularhousehold (906). For example, the pre-processing module 204 a mayidentify that the particular household has a 24-year-old female member,a 35-year-old female member, and a 46-year old male member, plus onemember whose demographics are unknown. The pre-processing module mayaccess viewing profile data for all other households with four membersthat include a female 18-24, a female 35-44, and a male 45-54. Thefourth member in those households may not always have the samedemographic profile, but those fourth members form their own group withdata that can be accessed and processed by the pre-processing module 204a.

For each missing member, the initial measurement module 204 b determinesa probability of the member watching the program based on the identifiedviewing profile data (908). In some implementations, this uses theviewing profiles of the household members corresponding to the missingmember in the other households.

For example, a particular household has four members {24F, 35F, 46M,missing}. In order to determine a probability of the missing memberwatching a program associated with a given tuning event, the initialmeasurement module 204 b may look at the viewing profile data forhouseholds having a female 18-24, a female 35-44, a male 45-54, and afourth member. The viewing profiles of the fourth members in each ofthose households may be used to determine a probability for the missingmember watching the show. For example, for a household with four members{19M, 21F, 42F, 50M}, the viewing profile of the 19-year-old male wouldbe included. For a household with four members {18F, 30F, 44F, 45M}, the30-year-old female would be included. For a household with four members{24F, 44F, 54M, 75M}, the 75-year-old male would be included. As abovewith respect to action 502 of the process 500, the probability of themissing member watching the program may be determined to be theproportion of these included members who watched the program.

The measurement adjustment module 204 c applies the determinedprobabilities for the missing members for calculating fractionalviewership for each event (910). That is, the process otherwise proceedsas described above with respect to actions 504, 506, and 508 of theprocess 500, with the determined probabilities being used fordetermining a household adjustment factor, adjusted probabilities, andfractional viewership values as described.

In some implementations, the missing members are not considered to bepart of any particular demographic, and so any subsequent reports orviewership data using particular demographics may exclude the fractionalviewership values determined for the missing members. However, in someimplementations, the fractional viewership values may be included whengenerating reports not specific to the missing demographic data, such asgeneral viewership statistics or reports broken down only by householdsize.

Applying the demographic attribution model as described above withrespect to processes 300, 400, 500, 700, 800, and 900 generally assumesthat viewing profile data 118, representing the demographics ofhousehold members and whether or not they watch a particular program, isknown for the program associated with the event for which eventviewership data is to be determined. More formally, as described abovewith respect to action 502 of process 500, in determining P(V_(i)^(s)|d_(i), H), the probability that a particular household member iwatched the episode s given the member's demographic information d_(i)and household size H, the following equation is used:

${P\left( {\left. V_{i}^{s} \middle| d_{i} \right.,H} \right)} = \frac{n_{d_{i},H}}{N_{d_{i},H}}$

Where n_(di,H) is the number of persons with demographic characteristicsd_(i) and household size H within the viewing profile data 118 who arerecorded as watching a particular episode of the program, and N_(di,H)is the total number individuals with demographic characteristics d_(i)and household size H within the profile viewing data 118.

In some implementations, the data score 120 may not include adequateviewing profile data 118 for a particular program. Formally, thevariable n_(di,H) from the above equation is not available, and so theabove equation cannot be used to determine P(V_(i) ^(s)|d_(i), H).However, other techniques may be available for determining theprobabilities of each household member watching the program. Forexample, the data store 120 may include viewership data for the networkn and viewership data for a particular time of viewing, δ (such asbetween 8 pm and 8:30 pm). Formally, the data store 120 may include datasufficient to determine P(V_(i) ^(n)|d_(i), H), the probability that aparticular household member i watches the network n, and P(V_(i)^(δ)|d_(i), H), the probability that a particular household member iwatches television at time δ.

In some implementations, the following equation can be applied:P(V _(i) ^(s) |d _(i) ,H)=P(V _(i) ^(n) |d _(i) ,H)×P(V _(i) ^(δ) |d_(i,H))

Given a household member's demographics and household size, thisequation determines the probability of an individual i watching anepisode s for which program viewership data as a product of theprobability that the individual watches the network n multiplied by theprobability that the individual watches television during the particulartime of viewing associated with the episode is not available. Thisequation provides a method to determine the probabilities necessary tocarry out, for example, action 502 of process 500, action 806 of process800, or action 908 of process 900. Similar alternatives may be availablein order to accommodate other missing data as necessary.

Although specific examples using various equations of probability aredescribed herein, the methods described herein can be used with avariety of probability and statistical techniques and are not limited toonly the equations and examples shown.

Systems for Implementation

The techniques described herein can be implemented in digital electroniccircuitry, or in computer hardware, firmware, software, or incombinations of them. The techniques can be implemented as a computerprogram product, i.e., a computer program tangibly embodied in aninformation carrier, e.g., in a machine-readable storage device, inmachine-readable storage medium, in a computer-readable storage deviceor, in computer-readable storage medium for execution by, or to controlthe operation of, data processing apparatus, e.g., a programmableprocessor, a computer, or multiple computers. A computer program can bewritten in any form of programming language, including compiled orinterpreted languages, and it can be deployed in any form, including asa stand-alone program or as a module, component, subroutine, or otherunit suitable for use in a computing environment. A computer program canbe deployed to be executed on one computer or on multiple computers atone site or distributed across multiple sites and interconnected by acommunication network.

Method steps of the techniques can be performed by one or moreprogrammable processors executing a computer program to performfunctions of the techniques by operating on input data and generatingoutput. Method steps can also be performed by, and apparatus of thetechniques can be implemented as, special purpose logic circuitry, e.g.,an FPGA (field programmable gate array) or an ASIC (application-specificintegrated circuit).

Processors suitable for the execution of a computer program include, byway of example, both general and special purpose microprocessors, andany one or more processors of any kind of digital computer. Generally, aprocessor will receive instructions and data from a read-only memory ora random access memory or both. The essential elements of a computer area processor for executing instructions and one or more memory devicesfor storing instructions and data. Generally, a computer will alsoinclude, or be operatively coupled to receive data from or transfer datato, or both, one or more mass storage devices for storing data, such as,magnetic, magneto-optical disks, or optical disks. Information carrierssuitable for embodying computer program instructions and data includeall forms of non-volatile memory, including by way of examplesemiconductor memory devices, such as, EPROM, EEPROM, and flash memorydevices; magnetic disks, such as, internal hard disks or removabledisks; magneto-optical disks; and CD-ROM and DVD-ROM disks. Theprocessor and the memory can be supplemented by, or incorporated inspecial purpose logic circuitry.

A number of implementations of the techniques have been described.Nevertheless, it will be understood that various modifications may bemade. For example, useful results still could be achieved if steps ofthe disclosed techniques were performed in a different order and/or ifcomponents in the disclosed systems were combined in a different mannerand/or replaced or supplemented by other components.

What is claimed:
 1. A computer-implemented method comprising: accessingtuning data representing a television viewing event associated with aparticular household; accessing household member data representinginformation on individual members of the particular household; accessingviewing profile data representing information on individual members ofother households regarding viewership by the individual members of theother households; determining fractional viewership values for theindividual members of the particular household based on the tuning data,the household member data, and the viewing profile data including: foreach individual member of the particular household, determining aprobability for that member having watched the television viewing eventbased on the household member data and the viewing profile data;determining a household adjustment factor representing the probabilitythat at least one member of the household watched the television viewingevent, the household adjustment factor based at least in part on aprobability of the television viewing event occurring in a householdhaving a same demographic profile as the particular household; for eachindividual member of the particular household, adjusting the probabilityfor that member having watched the television viewing event based on thehousehold adjustment factor; and for each individual member of theparticular household, determining the fractional viewership value basedon the adjusted probability for that member having watched thetelevision viewing event; and determining household viewership databased on the fractional viewership values.
 2. The method of claim 1,wherein the viewing profile data is based on survey data.
 3. The methodof claim 1, wherein determining fractional viewership values for theindividual members of the particular household comprises, for at leastone of the individual members: determining that a particular episode ofa television program is associated with the television viewing event;and determining a fraction of members of other households withinformation matching the individual member that watch the televisionprogram.
 4. The method of claim 3, wherein the household member datadoes not include information on at least one missing member of theparticular household; wherein the method further comprises determining afractional viewership value for the at least one missing member based ondetermining a fraction of identified members of other households thatwatch the television program, wherein the members are identified basedon the other members in their households having information matching theinformation of the members of the particular household other than the atleast one missing member.
 5. The method of claim 3, further comprising:accessing the household viewership data; accessing other householdviewership data for one or more other television viewing eventsassociated with the particular episode of the television program; andaggregating the household viewership data and the other householdviewership data to generate episode viewership data associated with theparticular episode of the television program.
 6. The method of claim 5,further comprising: accessing the episode viewership data associatedwith the particular episode of the television program; accessing otherepisode viewership data for one or more other episodes of the televisionprogram; and aggregating the episode viewership data and the otherepisode viewership data to generate program viewership data associatedwith the television program.
 7. The method of claim 6, furthercomprising: accessing the program viewership data, wherein thetelevision program is associated with a particular television network;accessing other program viewership data for one or more other televisionprograms each associated with the television network; and aggregatingthe program viewership data and the other program viewership data togenerate network viewership data associated with the television network.8. The method of claim 7, further comprising: accessing the networkviewership data, wherein the television network is associated with aparticular entity; accessing other network viewership data for one ormore other television network each associated with the entity; andaggregating the network viewership data and the other network viewershipdata to generate entity viewership data associated with the entity. 9.The method of claim 1, wherein: the tuning data includes a time, date,and television network for the television viewing event; and determiningfractional viewership values for the individual members of theparticular household comprises, for at least one of the individualmembers, determining a fraction of members of other households withinformation matching the individual member that watch the televisionnetwork at the time and date associated with the television viewingevent.
 10. The method of claim 1, wherein the household member dataincludes, for each of the individual members, one or more demographicgroups to which that member belongs.
 11. The method of claim 1, furthercomprising: accessing tuning data representing a second televisionviewing event associated with the particular household and a particularepisode of a second television program, the second television viewingevent occurring simultaneously with the television viewing event; andaccessing second program viewership data representing information onindividual members of other households regarding viewership of thesecond television program by the individual members of the otherhouseholds; wherein determining fractional viewership values for theindividual members of the particular household is further based on thesecond program viewership data.
 12. A non-transitory, computer readablestorage medium storing instructions that, when executed by one or moreprocessing devices, cause the one or more processing devices to performthe following operations: accessing tuning data representing atelevision viewing event associated with a particular household;accessing household member data representing information on individualmembers of the particular household; accessing viewing profile datarepresenting information on individual members of other householdsregarding viewership by the individual members of the other households;determining fractional viewership values for the individual members ofthe particular household based on the tuning data, the household memberdata, and the viewing profile data including: for each individual memberof the particular household, determining a probability for that memberhaving watched the television viewing event based on the householdmember data and the viewing profile data; determining a householdadjustment factor representing the probability that at least one memberof the household watched the television viewing event, the householdadjustment factor based at least in part on a probability of thetelevision viewing event occurring in a household having a samedemographic profile as the particular household; for each individualmember of the particular household, adjusting the probability for thatmember having watched the television viewing event based on thehousehold adjustment factor; and for each individual member of theparticular household, determining the fractional viewership value basedon the adjusted probability for that member having watched thetelevision viewing event; and determining household viewership databased on the fractional viewership values.
 13. The medium of claim 12,wherein the viewing profile data is based on survey data.
 14. The mediumof claim 12, wherein determining fractional viewership values for theindividual members of the particular household comprises, for at leastone of the individual members: determining that a particular episode ofa television program is associated with the television viewing event;and determining a fraction of members of other households withinformation matching the individual member that watch the televisionprogram.
 15. The medium of claim 14, wherein the household member datadoes not include information on at least one missing member of theparticular household; wherein the method further comprises determining afractional viewership value for the at least one missing member based ondetermining a fraction of identified members of other households thatwatch the television program, wherein the members are identified basedon the other members in their households having information matching theinformation of the members of the particular household other than the atleast one missing member.
 16. The medium of claim 14, wherein theinstructions include instructions that, when executed, cause the one ormore processing devices to perform the following operations: accessingthe household viewership data; accessing other household viewership datafor one or more other television viewing events associated with theparticular episode of the television program; and aggregating thehousehold viewership data and the other household viewership data togenerate episode viewership data associated with the particular episodeof the television program.
 17. The medium of claim 16, wherein theinstructions include instructions that, when executed, cause the one ormore processing devices to perform the following operations: accessingthe episode viewership data associated with the particular episode ofthe television program; accessing other episode viewership data for oneor more other episodes of the television program; and aggregating theepisode viewership data and the other episode viewership data togenerate program viewership data associated with the television program.18. The medium of claim 17, wherein the instructions includeinstructions that, when executed, cause the one or more processingdevices to perform the following operations: accessing the programviewership data, wherein the television program is associated with aparticular television network; accessing other program viewership datafor one or more other television programs each associated with thetelevision network; and aggregating the program viewership data and theother program viewership data to generate network viewership dataassociated with the television network.
 19. The medium of claim 18,wherein the instructions include instructions that, when executed, causethe one or more processing devices to perform the following operations:accessing the network viewership data, wherein the television network isassociated with a particular entity; accessing other network viewershipdata for one or more other television network each associated with theentity; and aggregating the network viewership data and the othernetwork viewership data to generate entity viewership data associatedwith the entity.
 20. The medium of claim 12, wherein: the tuning dataincludes a time, date, and television network for the television viewingevent; and determining fractional viewership values for the individualmembers of the particular household comprises, for at least one of theindividual members, determining a fraction of members of otherhouseholds with information matching the individual member that watchthe television network at the time and date associated with thetelevision viewing event.
 21. The medium of claim 12, wherein thehousehold member data includes, for each of the individual members, oneor more demographic groups to which that member belongs.
 22. The mediumof claim 12, wherein the instructions include instructions that, whenexecuted, cause the one or more processing devices to perform thefollowing operations: accessing tuning data representing a secondtelevision viewing event associated with the particular household and aparticular episode of a second television program, the second televisionviewing event occurring simultaneously with the television viewingevent; and accessing second program viewership data representinginformation on individual members of other households regardingviewership of the second television program by the individual members ofthe other households; wherein determining fractional viewership valuesfor the individual members of the particular household is further basedon the second program viewership data.